Why did bonds go down in 2023?
Bond funds staged a fourth-quarter comeback in 2023. Through late October, the Morningstar US Core Bond Index, a proxy for the broad fixed-income market, was on pace for a third-consecutive year of losses as uncertainty around a hard or soft landing lingered and interest-rate volatility persisted.
However, at the risk of repeating the message from last year, bonds still look particularly cheap – and conditions may now be turning in their favour, if the price recovery in late 2023 is to be believed. As ever, selecting the right instruments will be key, and so too may be having a stomach for volatility.
What causes bond prices to fall? Bond prices move in inverse fashion to interest rates, reflecting an important bond investing consideration known as interest rate risk. If bond yields decline, the value of bonds already on the market move higher. If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value.
The fixed rate rose to 0.4% in November 2022 so any I bond purchased after that date should be held. Likewise, you may want to hold on to I bonds issued between May and October 2023. Those I bonds have a fixed rate of 0.9%, which is the highest fixed rate in 16 years.
“Although some volatility may continue, we believe interest rates have peaked,” predicts Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. “We expect lower Treasury yields and positive returns for investors in 2024.”
The Morningstar Emerging Markets Composite Bond Index gained 9% in 2023, though the bulk of that performance came during the last quarter, mostly due to declining inflation rates and a weakening dollar. Some top developing-markets managers enjoyed continued success in 2023.
In the second half of the year, we look for bond yields to continue to decline. The forces that have been pulling them lower—tightening monetary and fiscal policies—should continue. Treasuries with maturities of two years or longer likely will continue to decline.
The short answer is bonds tend to be less volatile than stocks and often perform better during recessions than other financial assets. However, they also come with their own set of risks, including default risk and interest rate risk.
Bonds are a type of fixed-income investment. You can make money on a bond from interest payments and by selling it for more than you paid. You can lose money on a bond if you sell it for less than you paid or the issuer defaults on their payments.
Moore expects that prices of high-quality corporate bonds will recover strongly once the economy and inflation slow, and the Fed begins cutting rates to stimulate growth.
Why are bonds doing so poorly?
Interest rate changes are the primary culprit when bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lose value. As interest rates rise, the prices of existing bonds fall, which impacts the value of the ETFs holding these assets.
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $207.36 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $414.72 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $1,036.80 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $2,073.60 |
Unless you are set on holding your bonds until maturity despite the upcoming availability of more lucrative options, a looming interest rate hike should be a clear sell signal.
Strong demand should support bonds in 2024
I believe investors are going to shift an increasing amount of money to fixed income and more interest rate-sensitive assets in 2024 as the Fed has signaled an end to its hiking cycle.
We expect bond yields to decline in line with falling inflation and slower economic growth, but uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's policy moves will likely be a source of volatility. Nonetheless, we are optimistic that fixed income will deliver positive returns in 2024. For illustrative purposes only.
Once a Series I bond is five years old, there is no interest penalty for redemption. Question: Can you determine what the value of a Series I bond will be in future years? inflation rate can vary. You can count on a Series I bond to hold its value; that is, the bond's redemption value will not decline.
Conversely, when interest rates fall, prices of existing bonds tend to rise, their coupon remains constant – and yields go down. Not surprisingly, a bond's quality also has a direct bearing on its price and yield.
“Yields are fairly high now, and high-quality bonds that you hold to maturity are safe investments,” he said. Mr. Pozen added that well-diversified investment-grade bond funds make sense now, too, for prudent investors who are prepared to hold them for at least three years.
- ProShares High YieldInterest Rate Hedged (BATS:HYHG) ...
- PGIM Floating Rate Income ETF (NYSE:PFRL) ...
- Pacer Pacific Asset Floating Rate High Income ETF (NYSE:FLRT) ...
- ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE:TBT) ...
- ProShares UltraPro Short 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE:TTT)
Over the long term, high-quality bond funds have tended to offer better diversification against stock volatility and higher yield potential than cash. While the road ahead may be a bit bumpy, sticking to your investment plan is an important step toward keeping your long-term goals on track.
Why are bonds selling off?
Most likely it's a simply question of supply and demand. There are more bonds for sale. The Treasury announced its predicted borrowing needs through next year that must cover larger deficits, weaker tax revenues and higher debt servicing costs.
Treasuries are generally considered"risk-free" since the federal government guarantees them and has never (yet) defaulted. These government bonds are often best for investors seeking a safe haven for their money, particularly during volatile market periods. They offer high liquidity due to an active secondary market.
Although bonds may not necessarily provide the biggest returns, they are considered a reliable investment tool. That's because they are known to provide regular income. But they are also considered to be a stable and sound way to invest your money.
Bonds and cash have historically outperformed most stocks during recessions. Selling stocks in favor of bonds and cash before a recession may leave you unprepared if stocks bounce back before the economy does, which has happened historically during many recessions.
Key Takeaways. Both certificates of deposit (CDs) and bonds are considered safe-haven investments with modest returns and low risk. When interest rates are high, a CD may yield a better return than a bond. When interest rates are low, a bond may be the higher-paying investment.
